The Edge for November 2021

The economy, federal aid, the pandemic and the workers’ shortage – and how they impact the election for governor - were topics discussed by five New Jersey business reporters during an Oct. 28 Election Forum hosted by the New Jersey Chamber of Commerce.

See below to read more about what was discussed at the forum moderated by Tom Bergeron, owner and editor of ROI-NJ.

Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy has promoted himself as a progressive candidate that has steered New Jersey through the pandemic, and rolled out college affordability policies and new business tax incentives like those found in the Economic Recovery Act of 2020. He has invested in a green jobs workforce; established an Evergreen Fund with private capital to support New Jersey-based start-ups and has invested in roads and bridges.

Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli said he will be tax cutter, and has promised to "substantially lower" the state Corporation Business Tax over five years; allow an earlier tax benefit through carrying forward capital losses to future tax years; eliminate the capital gains tax on the sale of small “mom and pop” shops; and promote entrepreneurship and smarter redevelopment in urban areas through an expansion of federal Opportunity Zones and other private investment.

The Economy

Rhonda Schaffler
Business Correspondent
NJ Spotlight News Both candidates have said little about the business climate on the campaign trail.

“If (Murphy) campaigns too much on the economy, he may open himself to criticism,” said Rhonda Schaffler, business correspondent at NJ Spotlight News. “Businesses are still struggling. So if he campaigns on that, it may backfire."

Ciattarelli’s tax cut proposals are also tricky to run on, said Stacie Sherman, deputy managing editor for U.S. bureaus at Bloomberg News. “Cutting a tax in half means cutting spending as well. So if he is going to highlight that, he will need to talk about how he is going to pay for it," Sherman said.

Ciattarelli boasts a more business focused platform, said Colleen O’Dea, senior writer and projects editor of NJ Spotlight News. “Murphy is trying to play to the Democratic base and emphasize the social programs,” O’Dea said. “He wants to get women out to vote. That has been more of his focus.”

Still, Murphy has recently announced a string of planned corporate expansions that he says will be big job generators for New Jersey.

“These announcements on the whole are positive,” Schaffler said. “Still, these are photo ops with shovels, but no buildings and no new jobs yet.”

Federal Pandemic Aid

Daniel Munoz
Staff Writer, Government/Economic Development
NJBIZThere is the question of how the state will spend federal pandemic aid. “Why not use the federal aid to replenish the state Unemployment Insurance (UI) Trust Fund?” Bergeron asked.

Without that relief, employers are asked to pay more in taxes.

It’s complicated. “In a campaign you are looking for sound bites and things people understand,” O’Dea said. “Yes, the UI fund needs money desperately. But a candidate can’t (talk about it) very quickly in a sound bite.”

Neither campaign has “said one way or another whether they will use federal funding to replenish the unemployment fund,” said Munoz, staff writer at NJBIZ.

Workers’ Shortage

Tom Bergeron
Owner, Editor and Chief Content Officer
ROI-NJThe state’s unemployment rate remains higher than the rest of the country, Bergeron said. “Yet, there is a workers’ shortage,” he said. “Employers are paying more to get workers.  Employers still can’t fill jobs. What is going on here? Is it the Great Resignation or the Great Indignation? Do people not want to work anymore?”

This is a shift of the future of work, Munoz said. “It’s a historical pivot regarding our relationship with work and work-life balance,” he said.

“I thought when the $300 (supplemental unemployment) checks stopped, people would go back to work,” Sherman said. “That is not happening. Restaurants have long waits. Doctors' offices have long waits for appointments. I don’t know where all the people are.”

There are people who are retiring early or don't want to go back to work five days a week, Schaffler said. “Companies are doing what they have to do to keep employees,” she added. “For the first time in a long time, business does not have the upper hand over labor. Employers are saying, ‘You want to work at home two days a week? That’s fine.’ ‘You want to work from Iowa? That’s fine.’”

Supply Chain Crisis

Stacie Sherman
Deputy Managing Editor for U.S. Bureaus
Bloomberg NewsThe labor shortage, in turn, is contributing to the worldwide supply chain crisis.

“There is a shortage of products on shelves, and people are noticing,” Bergeron said. 

“We have all this demand right now but we can’t meet it with transportation and supply,” Sherman added. “iPads and iPhones are in short supply. You may not be able to get an iPhone for Christmas. For the next couple of months, it will be a very big issue.”

The Pandemic

Colleen O'Dea
Senior Writer and Projects Editor
NJ Spotlight NewsWill the handling of the pandemic help or hurt Murphy?

“It helped his polling last year,” Munoz said. “But the economy is taking the forefront again, and we are seeing Ciattarelli closing the gap.”

O’Dea said, "Cases are down, hospitalizations are down. If this (trend) happened a couple of months ago, there would have been more talk about property taxes and economy (on the campaign trail).”

“It is starting to come to the forefront,” she added. “But is it too late for Ciattarelli?”

Voter Turnout

When it’s all said and done, voter turnout can be the factor that tips the scales on Election Day, Sherman said. “The last (gubernatorial) election had 38 percent turnout,” she said. “It really depends on which candidate can bring voters to the polls.”

View replay of the NJCC Election Forum

Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 2.